Bayern v Inter this weekend – 12 ways to cash-in on the Final!

Thursday 20th May 2010

In your bumper Champions League email today:

• The Final - Bayern Munich v Inter Milan...
  
• What the stats say - Goals, Corners and Booking Points...
  
• 28/1 Man of the Match value...
  
• If you only place one bet on the final - make it this one...

We're seeing off this season's Champions League with a look at all
the top stats and markets for this weekend's Final...

For the first time ever the Final is being played at the weekend -
Bayern Munich v Inter Milan kicks off at 7.45pm on Saturday. Let's
get straight in to the stats - there are over 100 markets on offer
with the bookies and I've included the pick of them for you here,
with stats for 12 different bets.

Bayern Munich v Inter Milan

Sat 22nd May, 7.45pm live on ITV1 and Sky Sports 1
Venue: Spain, Madrid - Santiago Bernabéu
Referee: Howard Webb

Outright Winner

This year's final sees the German league champions Bayern Munich
take on Italian league winners Inter Milan. After knocking out last
season's Champions League winners Barcelona in the semi finals,
Jose Mourinho's Inter side are the bookies' odds-on favourites to
be crowned kings of Europe on Saturday night...

Inter are 4/7 (1.57) to win. That's the price 'To Lift The Trophy'
- a bet that covers the whole match including Extra Time and
Penalties if played. Find the best odds here:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/

Totesport make Inter 10/1 'To Win In Extra Time' with Bayern at
12/1, and both teams are a 17/2-shot 'To Win On Penalties.'

• Note: All the bookies' standard markets cover Normal Time
  only - including Corners, Scorers, Goals and Booking Points bets.

Let's start with the 90 Minutes Match Result...

Match Result

Bayern have lost 4 times in this season's competition - they're the
first team to lose that many games and still make it to the final.
Their overall record is won 7, drawn 1 and lost 4.  Inter's record
is won 7, drawn 3 and lost 2.

In the knockout stages, Bayern won all 3 of their home legs, and
lost 2 out of 3 away legs. Inter have been very impressive since
the end of the group stages, winning home and away against Chelsea
and CSKA Moscow. Then, in the semi finals, they took a 3-1 lead to
Barcelona, where they lost the 2nd Leg 1-0. Until then, Inter had
won 6 Champions League games in a row.

Bayern have scored 21 goals in the tournament so far, but conceded
15 - giving them a Goal Difference of +6. Inter have scored just 15
but only conceded 9 - giving them a +6 Goal Difference too. The
defensive records could hold the key in the final though - and
Inter lead the way in that department.

• Inter Milan are a best priced 23/17 (2.35) with Expekt and Bwin.

Find the best odds on the 90 Minutes Match Result market here:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/

Goals

Bayern games have averaged 2.83 Total Goals, with 6 out of 6 away
games going Over 2.5 Goals. Overall, 67% of their Champions League
games have gone 'Over' this season - including 5 out of 6 games in
the knockout stages.

Inter games have averaged 2.0 Total Goals with 50% of home games
and 5 out of 6 away games going Under 2.5 Goals. The 'Under' bet
has paid out in 4 out of 6 Inter games in the knockout stages.

• The bookies make Under 2.5 Goals an odds-on bet for the
  final, at a best price of 8/13 (1.62) with Blue Square and 888
  Sport. However that's not a good value bet based on the stats. Over
  2.5 Goals is 11/8 (2.37).

Find the latest odds on the Total Goals market here:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/

Corners

Bayern have been a 50-50 team for Over and Under 10.5 Corners
games, with 6 games going Under and 6 going Over. Their home games
averaged 11.5 Total Corners and their away games averaged 10.5.

Inter have been a consistent team for 'low corners' bets, with 8
out of 12 games overall going Under 10.5 Corners (67%). Their home
games averaged just 7.7 Total Corners, with away games coming in at
9.34.

• The stats point to an 'Under' bet if anything, although the
  bookies don't seem to have a strong opinion either way - Under 10
  Corners is Evens with Bet365 and it's the same price for Over 10
  Corners, with Exactly 10 at 15/2.

Find the best odds on the Total Corners market here:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/

The Corners For and Against stats highlight a much stronger trend
for both teams...

Corner Handicap

Bayern have been a great bet for Most Corners and Corner Handicap
bets this season. Their overall corner averages are 7.8 Corners For
and 3.3 Corners Against - winning an average of 4.5 corners more
than opponents per game. They've won the Most Corners and beat a -1
Corner Handicap in 11 out of 12 games - that's a very impressive
92% record.

Inter are a good match-up as their stats are pretty much the
opposite to Bayern's. Inter average 3.4 Corners For and 5.1 Corners
Against - conceding an average of 1.7 corners more than they win.
They've only won the Most Corners in 2 out of 12 games - with bets
on Inter's opponent to win the Most Corners paying out in 83% of
games. Opponents would've landed a -1 Corner Handicap bet in 67% of
Inter games.

All the stats point to Bayern Munich winning the Most Corners on
Saturday night.

• Bayern can be backed at 4/6 (1.67) with Paddy Power to win
  the Most Corners.

Check here for the best odds on the Most Corners market:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/

Bets on Bayern Munich with a -1 Corner Handicap have also paid out
in 11 out of 12 Bayern games so far. That bet wins if Bayern win at
least 2 corners more than Inter, and is available at 11/10 (2.10)
with Stan James, Betfred and Bet365. Best odds here:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/

Booking Points

The Booking Points stats are evenly matched...

Neither team has got the Most Booking Points in the majority of
their games, and both teams have similar First Card records -
Bayern have received the First Card in 7 out of 12 games, and an
Inter player has been first in the book 9 times out of 12.

• Bayern Munich average 22.9 pts For and 28.3 pts Against, with
  a total of 51.2 pts per game.

• Inter Milan average 29.2 pts For and 27.5 pts Against, with a
  total of 56.7 pts.

Usually those stats would suggest an 'Over 3.5' or 'Over 4.5 Cards'
bet - with both teams' match Totals averaging 5 yellow cards (50
pts) or more.

However the bookies are anticipating a busy evening for the
Referee, Howard Webb. Bet365 are offering Over 5.5 Cards. There
would need to be at least 6 yellow cards - or a couple of yellow
cards and sending offs - to land that Over 5.5 bet. That's a 'high'
line to beat.

It's also worth noting that in the last 3 Champions League finals,
there have been exactly 4 yellow cards (40 Booking Points) in
Normal Time. That trend, along with both teams' evenly matched
stats, suggests that the 'Under' option is the better bet.

• Under 5.5 Cards is 4/6 (1.67) with Bet365.

Latest odds here:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/

Scorers

Both teams have 2 players that stand out for First Goalscorer and
Anytime Scorer bets on Saturday night...

For Bayern Munich, Ivica Olic has 7 goals and is joint-2nd Top
Scorer in the Champions League this season. He also scored 11 goals
in the German league this season. His team-mate Arjen Robben has 4
goals to his name, including important strikes in the knockout
stages against Fiorentina and Man Utd - and 16 goals in the
Bundesliga.

• Olic is 13/5 with Paddy Power to Score Anytime and 8/1 with
  Ladbrokes to be the First Goalscorer

• Robben is 3/1 to Score Anytime and 8/1 to be First Goalscorer
  with Paddy Power

The Inter Milan danger-men up front are Diego Milito and Samuel
Eto'o...

Milito has scored 4 Champions League goals so far and was 2nd-Top
Scorer in the Italian league with 22 goals. Eto'o has 2 Champions
League goals this season and 12 in Serie A. This is Eto's 3rd
Champions League final - and he was on the score-sheet in both his
previous appearances.

• Milito is 15/8 to Score Anytime and 11/2 to be First
  Goalscorer with Coral

• Eto'o is 11/5 to Score Anytime and 6/1 to be First Goalscorer
  with Paddy Power

Find the best odds on Anytime Scorer and First Goalscorer bets
here:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/

And finally - Specials...

The bookies love to put up extra markets for the final, with
Specials available on everything from the amount of Stoppage Time
added on at the end of each half to First Substitution and Penalty
Shootout Correct Scores.

Most of those kinds of Specials bets are impossible to predict and
are best left alone. One that is worth a closer look though is the
Man of the Match market...

It's no surprise to see the 4 players I mentioned for Scorer bets
are at the top of the bookies' lists, along with Inter Milan's
midfield star Wesley Sneijder.

UEFA Man of the Match

Diego Milito - best price 7/1 Ladbrokes
Arjen Robben - best price 7/1 Ladbrokes
Samuel Eto'o - best price 8/1 Ladbrokes
Ivica Olic - best price 8/1 Ladbrokes
Wesley Sneijder - best price 8/1 Blue Square

It's likely that this award will go to a player on the winning
side, and considering Inter Milan are the odds-on favourites to
win, 3 of their players stand out in particular. 7/1 Diego Milito
is their top scorer and 8/1 Wesley Sneijder often gets rave reviews
from the pundits, as does Brazil captain and former Bayern Munich
centre back Lucio - who is available at a big-looking 28/1 with
Boylesports.

Find the best odds on the Man of the Match market here:

http://odds.sportsbettingxtra.co.uk/football/champions-league/

If you only place one bet - make it this one...

I've gone through all the main markets for the final in today's
bumper email. The stats that stand out most are on the Corners -
where bets on Bayern Munich to win the Most Corners have paid out
in a high 92% of games, 11 times out of 12. Placing that bet on
Inter Milan's opponents would also have paid out in 10 out of 12
games this season. If you only place one bet on Saturday's night's
game, then I'd make it this one.

The final is live on ITV1 and Sky Sports 1 on Saturday night, kick
off 7.45pm. Enjoy the game...

Best wishes,

Matt Nesbitt

Champions League Bet

www.ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk